Forecasts of Total Deaths

 Forecasts of Total Deaths

Model name: UT

Intervention assumptions: This model estimates the extent of social distancing using geolocation data from mobile phones and assumes that the extent of social distancing will not change during the period of forecasting. The model is designed to predict confirmed COVID-19 deaths resulting from only a single wave of transmission.

Methods: Nonlinear Bayesian hierarchical regression with a negative-binomial model for daily variation in death rates.

Related post